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The Independent hurt Labor more here by looks in the drop of the primary vote, this seat seems to have moved away from being competitive. I would say national hold as Labor will be busy sandbagging other electorate and trying to win more competitive electorates.
Sorry I mean National hold
This isn’t even a bellwether anymore, it’s becoming a safe Nationals seat like the rest of the North Coast and the Mid North Coast.
The only thing keeping the Labor anywhere close is the vote in Lismore which I assume is because of the University. A redistribution or an increase to parliament could cut that margin and if Hogan retires labor might be within a shot.